The International Monetary Fund kept its global growth forecast at 3% for the current year and expects growth of 2.9% in 2024 despite signs of weakness recorded in several major economies, according to data published on Tuesday on the occasion of its annual meetings.
The IMF still expects global growth of 3% in 2023 and slightly less in 2024 with 2.9%, a slight decrease (-0.1%) compared to its previous estimate issued in July. But he raised his forecasts for the US economy with growth of 2.1% this year and 1.5% in 2024.
On the other hand,the world’s second largest economy will record GDP growth of 5% in 2023 and 4.2% next year,according to the IMF quarterly forecasts, a decrease of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, compared to July forecasts.
Germany has the most worrying indicators, with a recession that is becoming more pronounced this year with -0.5% and wider than expected, and then a weak recovery next year with 0.9%, while in July the IMF predicted a better performance.
“We have a global economy that is still recovering from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and at the same time we have growth that remains weak compared to previous levels,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier goryncha said during an online press conference. We are also recording growing differences, ” he said.
The situation is different among developed economies or among emerging countries, with some of them seeing a significant improvement in their forecasts, while others, especially in Europe, are experiencing a slowdown or even a slight recession.
The reason for this is the continuing repercussions of some crises, especially the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while slowing inflation takes time, prompting central banks to continue a tight monetary policy with high interest rates.
