Latin America is bracing for the effects of El Niño, with flooding and droughts exacerbated by climate change expected to cost the region’s economy $300 billion in growth.
Experts announced the return of El Niño, the weather event that warms the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean’s surface and produces global shifts in temperature and rainfall, as the world sweltered from the “hottest week on record” in early July, according to “Financial Times.”
The World Meteorological Organization urged governments in impacted countries, including Southeast Asia, Africa, Australia, southern US states, and South America, to act quickly “to save lives and livelihoods.”
The phenomenon has an unequal impact on the region, delivering strong rainfall to Peru and Ecuador’s Pacific beaches and drought to sections of Colombia and Chile, while increasing the probability of wildfires in the Amazon jungle.
Corficolombiana, a financial services firm located in Bogotá, forecasts growth of 1.7% in Peru, 1.6% in Ecuador, and 0.6% in Colombia, with economists warning that food and energy shortages could produce another bout of inflation, prompting new interest rate hikes.
El Niño warms the normally cold and nutrient-rich Humboldt current off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, causing fish to migrate away from some of the world’s most productive fisheries.
According to Lima-based consultant Thorne & Associates, output in Peru’s fishing industry is expected to fall by 19.3 percent this year after the production ministry canceled the year’s first anchovy fishing season.
The little fish is used to make fishmeal, of which Peru generates 20% of the world’s supply. Total fish production in Peru decreased 70% in May compared to the same month last year.
Ecuador, which suffered 300 deaths and $3 billion in economic output due to El Niño in 1997–98, is also facing agricultural disruption.
According to banana growers, 50,000 hectares are in jeopardy, and sugar harvests have been postponed. The government has set aside $266 million to help offset losses and damage.
Droughts are predicted to highlight vulnerabilities in Colombia’s electricity grid, which is fed by hydroelectric power to the tune of 70%. Economists forecast that reservoir capacity will collapse from 65% to 44% during El Niño, requiring the government to consider expanding generation from fossil fuels.
According to the Bogotá-based research tank Fedesarrollo, electricity bills in Colombia will jump by 50 to 100 percent depending on the intensity of El Niño.
“El Niño has already been integrated into our economic estimates, We’ve factored in a drop in crop size owing to drought, as well as potential inflationary implications,” said Ricardo Bonilla, the country’s finance minister.
Scientists in drought-stricken Chile has attributed recent heavy rainfall, the largest in 30 years, to a mix of El Nio and climate change.
